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21.
On November 18, 2017, a MS6.9 earthquake struck Mainling County, Tibet, with a depth of 10km. The earthquake occurred at the eastern Himalaya syntaxis. The Namche Barwan moved northward relative to the Himalayan terrane and was subducted deeply beneath the Lhasa terrane, forming the eastern syntaxis after the collision of the Indian plate and Asian plates. Firstly, this paper uses the far and near field broadband seismic waveform for joint inversion (CAPJoint method)of the earthquake focal mechanism. Two groups of nodal planes are obtained after 1000 times Bootstrap test. The strike, dip and rake of the best solution are calculated to be 302°, 76° and 84° (the nodal plane Ⅰ)and 138°, 27° and 104° (the nodal plane Ⅱ), respectively. This event was captured by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)measurements from the Sentinel-1A radar satellite, which provide the opportunity to determine the fault plane, as well as the co-seismic slip distribution, and assess the seismic hazards. The overall trend of the deformation field revealed by InSAR is consistent with the GPS displacement field released by the Gan Wei-Jun's team. Geodesy (InSAR and GPS)observation of the earthquake deformation field shows the northeastern side of the epicenter uplifting and the southwestern side sinking. According to geodetic measurements and the thrust characteristics of fault deformation field, we speculate that the nodal plane Ⅰ is the true rupture plane. Secondly, based on the focal mechanism, we use InSAR data as the constraint to invert for the fine slip distribution on the fault plane. Our best model suggests that the seismogenic fault is a NW-SE striking thrust fault with a high angle. Combined with the slip distribution and aftershocks, we suggest that the earthquake is a high-angle thrust event, which is caused by the NE-dipping thrust beneath the Namche Barwa syntaxis subducted deeply beneath the Lhasa terrane.  相似文献   
22.
Stable isotopes of water have been widely used in understanding the hydrological functions of alpine inland catchments. This study identifies dominant runoff generation mechanisms based on isotopic data (δ18O and δ2H) of 487 rainwater and river-water samples from three tributaries in the Tarim River Basin in China for the period May–September 2013. The isotope hydrograph separation results provide a comprehensive overview of the rainfall influence on hydrological processes. Stream water and groundwater have varied responses to different intensities of rainfall events. Only a small proportion of rainfall is directly transported to the stream during such events. An inconsistent temporal trend of event water contribution is observed in the three catchments. The average fractional contributions of rainfall for the Tizinafu, Kumalak and Huangshuigou rivers are 10.3% (±1.1%), 9.7% (±2.9%) and 8.7% (±2.4%), respectively.  相似文献   
23.
Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.  相似文献   
24.
Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.  相似文献   
25.
Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.  相似文献   
26.
基于印度河流域及周围54个地面气象站气温、降水资料,结合CRU气温和GPCC降水全球格点化陆面再分析资料,通过插值构建了一套0.5°×0.5°分辨率1980—2016年逐月格点数据集。采用Thornthwaite方法计算了潜在蒸散发,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),探讨了印度河流域气候变化及干旱演变特征。结果表明:(1)1980—2016年,印度河流域年平均气温以0.30℃·(10 a)-1的速率呈显著上升趋势,21世纪初增温幅度最大;干季(11月~次年4月)升温速率较快,达0.36℃·(10 a)-1,湿季(5~10月)增速0.25℃·(10 a)-1。年降水量呈现少雨—多雨—少雨—多雨年代际振荡。伴随着持续升温,年和各季的潜在蒸发量增加显著。干季干旱频率较多,但湿季干旱强度高,各季干旱频率与降水呈现较一致的年代际波动;干旱的影响面积在干季呈现微弱地增加趋势,湿季却略有减少趋势。(2)空间上,除西北局部,流域其他区域的年和季平均气温、潜在蒸发量增加趋势显著,均达到95%置信水平。其中南部平原和东北山区升温幅度较高,南部平原区潜在蒸发量增加也较大。新德里到喀布尔的东南至西北带状区域的年和湿季降水量,以及喀布尔周围地区的干季降水量呈显著增加趋势。东南平原区和东北局部山区的干季,以及东北和西南局部山区的湿季呈现显著的干旱化态势,需要加强防灾减灾的意识并采取相应措施,以规避干旱增多带来的不利影响。  相似文献   
27.
Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   
28.
Precipitation isotope ratios (O and H) record the history of water phase transitions and fractionation processes during moisture transport and rainfall formation. Here, we evaluated the isotopic composition of precipitation over the central-southeastern region of Brazil at different timescales. Monthly isotopic compositions were associated with classical effects (rainfall amount, seasonality, and continentality), demonstrating the importance of vapor recirculation processes and different regional atmospheric systems (South American Convergence Zone-SACZ and Cold Fronts-CF). While moisture recycling and regional atmospheric processes may also be observed on a daily timescale, classical effects such as the amount effect were not strongly correlated (δ18O-precipitation rate r ≤ –0.37). Daily variability revealed specific climatic features, such as δ18O depleted values (~ –6‰ to –8‰) during the wet season were associated with strong convective activity and large moisture availability. Daily isotopic analysis revealed the role of different moisture sources and transport effects. Isotope ratios combined with d-excess explain how atmospheric recirculation processes interact with convective activity during rainfall formation processes. Our findings provide a new understanding of rainfall sampling timescales and highlight the importance of water isotopes to decipher key hydrometeorological processes in a complex spatial and temporal context in central-southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   
29.
Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is important to local and downstream ecosystems. Based on a weighting method considering model skill and independence, changes in the TP precipitation for near-term (2021–40), mid-term (2041–60) and long-term (2081–2100) under shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) are projected with 27 models from the latest Sixth Phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 7.4%–21.6% under five SSPs with a stronger change in the northern TP by the end of the 21st century relative to the present climatology. Changes in the TP precipitation at seasonal scales show a similar moistening trend to that of annual mean precipitation, except for the drying trend in winter precipitation along the southern edges of the TP. Weighting generally suggests a slightly stronger increase in TP precipitation with reduced model uncertainty compared to equally-weighted projections. The effect of weighting exhibits spatial and seasonal differences. Seasonally, weighting leads to a prevailing enhancement of increase in spring precipitation over the TP. Spatially, the influence of weighting is more remarkable over the northwestern TP regarding the annual, summer and autumn precipitation. Differences between weighted and original MMEs can give us more confidence in a stronger increase in precipitation over the TP, especially for the season of spring and the region of the northwestern TP, which requires additional attention in decision making.  相似文献   
30.
利用1961—2017年中国地面观测站日降水资料、全球大气多要素和海表温度月资料,分析华南区域持续性强降水过程的气候特征,诊断并比较与华南前汛期、后汛期区域持续性强降水年际变化相关的大气环流和海表温度异常特征。结果表明,3—12月华南都可能出现持续性强降水过程,其中汛期4—9月的占了94.4%。伴随着区域持续性强降水的年际变化,华南本地垂直上升运动显著异常是前汛期和后汛期的共同点,但前汛期、后汛期在华南及周边环流异常、水汽输送来源以及海温异常分布等方面都存在一定差异。在前汛期华南区域持续性强降水偏重年,赤道西太平洋区域海温偏低,由于大气罗斯贝波响应使西太平洋副热带高压偏强,热带西太平洋向华南区域水汽输送加强,从而有利于区域持续性强降水偏重。后汛期华南区域持续性强降水偏重年的海温异常分布是赤道中东太平洋区域正异常、东印度洋至西太平洋暖池区负异常,海温异常通过西北太平洋副热带高压、南海热带季风强度、水汽输送和垂直环流等多方面,导致后汛期区域持续性强降水偏重。   相似文献   
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